London, Aug 14.- The high temperatures this summer across the globe suggest that the 2018-2022 season will be warmer than expected, according to a study by an international team published today.
A new method based on an algorithm was used to reach this thesis, the authors from the University of Southampton, United Kingdom, and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute said in a statement.
The procedure does not use traditional simulation techniques. Instead, it uses a method of statistical investigation using different reference models to find similar climatic conditions and to deduce future possibilities, they explained.
This technique predicts the average air temperature deviation could be abnormally high between 2018 and 2022, according to the figures derived from current climate change.
This is due, especially, to the low probability of episodes of severe cold, they added.
The phenomenon is even more prominent with respect to sea-surface destemperances because of the high probability of heat episodes, which can lead to increased storm activity, they continued.
With the new method, regional forecasts could be adapted and, in addition to temperatures, rainfall and drought trends could be assessed, they concluded.